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11Part One · History

Coffee in the Twenty-First Century: What Threatens It and Who Gets Paid

Where Arabica comes from, what threatens coffee, why it cannot be saved in a seed vault, and who is paid for it.

In this chapter

  • Where Arabica Comes Fromwild coffee in Ethiopia, and Arabica’s narrow genetic base
  • What Threatens Coffeeclimate projections, and the extinction risk for wild coffee species
  • Why Coffee Cannot Be Put Aside for Laterwhy coffee seed cannot be stored like other crops, and what is done instead
  • Cascara: The Husk That Went on Salethe coffee cherry husk as a product, old and new
  • Who Gets Paidwhere the money from coffee goes, and what traceability technology can and cannot do

Questions this chapter answers

  • How much of the land suitable for Arabica may be lost by 2050?

    Modeling studies converge on about half of the land now suitable for Arabica becoming unsuitable by 2050.

  • Why isn’t coffee kept in the Svalbard seed vault?

    The vault keeps seeds dried and frozen at −18°C / 0°F; Arabica seeds survive drying only in part and do not survive freezing.

  • What is cascara, and is it new?

    The answer is in the book →

  • Did Kaffa give the world the word “coffee”?

    The answer is in the book →

  • Does blockchain traceability get coffee farmers paid more?

    The answer is in the book →

Short answers only. Chapter 11 gives the full account, with 6 footnotes to 6 sources.

Read more in the book

Sources

6 footnotes to 6 sources. Full references are in the bibliography.

  1. Scalabrin, Simone, Lucile Toniutti, Gabriele Di Gaspero et al. “A Single Polyploidization Event at the Origin of the Tetraploid Genome of Coffea arabica Is Responsible for the Extremely Low Genetic Variation in Wild and Cultivated Germplasm.” Scientific Reports 10 (2020): 4642. DOI 10.1038/s41598-020-61216-7.
  2. Bunn, Christian, Peter Läderach, Oriana Ovalle Rivera and Dieter Kirschke. “A Bitter Cup: Climate Change Profile of Global Production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee.” Climatic Change 129 (2015): 89–101. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x.
  3. Davis, Aaron P., Helen Chadburn, Justin Moat et al. “High Extinction Risk for Wild Coffee Species and Implications for Coffee Sector Sustainability.” Science Advances 5, no. 1 (2019): eaav3473. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aav3473.
  4. Crop Trust. “Svalbard Global Seed Vault.” croptrust.org/work/svalbard-global-seed-vault. Accessed September 21, 2026.
  5. Ellis, R. H., T. D. Hong and E. H. Roberts. “An Intermediate Category of Seed Storage Behaviour? I. Coffee.” Journal of Experimental Botany 41, no. 9 (1990): 1167–1174. DOI 10.1093/jxb/41.9.1167.
  6. Dussert, Stéphane, Nathalie Chabrillange, Gérard Rocquelin et al. “Tolerance of Coffee (Coffea spp.) Seeds to Ultra-Low Temperature Exposure in Relation to Calorimetric Properties of Tissue Water, Lipid Composition, and Cooling Procedure.” Physiologia Plantarum 112, no. 4 (2001): 495–504. DOI 10.1034/j.1399-3054.2001.1120406.x.